윌리엄 페섹이 헤지펀드와 환투기세력들이 한국이 공격권에 들어섰음을 강력 경고

<블룸버그>의 아시아전문 컬럼니스트인 윌리엄 페섹이 헤지펀드 등 국제 환투기세력이 최근 국가파산한 아이슬란드 다음으로 한국을 노리고 있다고 경고했다. 미국발 금융위기를 2년전 예견했던 누리엘 루비니 뉴욕대교수가 "한국은 아시아에서 가장 공격받기 쉬운 나라"라고 경고한 데 이어 잇따라 환투기세력의 공격 가능성을 경고한 발언이어서, 정부의 주의가 요구되는 상황이다. 페섹은 지난 24일(현지시간) <블룸버그>에 쓴 '베어스턴스의 유령이 한국 경제에 출몰했다'는 제목의 글을 통해 "거품이 한국을 부정적으로 보게 만들고 있다"며 "아시아에서 넷째로 경제규모가 큰 한국이 1997년과 같은 위기상황으로 치닫고 있다"고 지적했다. 그는 "이것은 미디어 칼럼을 꾸짖을 일이 아니다"라며 최근 외환경색의 원인을 외국언론들의 부정적 한국 보도에서 찾고 있는 한국 정부를 힐난하기도 했다. 그는 "10년전과는 다르다"는 최근 전광우 금융위원장의 <블룸버그> 인터뷰 내용, 3대 국제신용평가기관의 한국경제 긍정평가 등을 열거한 뒤, "그러나 눈에 띄는 것은 왜 투자자들이 한국을 아시아에서 가장 투자위험이 큰 국가로 보고 있는가이다"라고 한국경제의 구조적 문제점을 꼬집었다. 그는 "핵심적 문제는 은행들이 1997년과 마찬가지로 단기외채를 너무 많이 빌렸다는 점"이라며 국제금융시장이 더 악화될 경우 외자 유출이 더 거세질 것으로 내다봤다. 그는 특히 "지금, 헤지펀드와 환투기세력들이 아이슬란드를 수중에 넣고, 한국을 다음 공격을 할 맨앞의 타깃으로 올려놓고 있다(Now, they are gunning for entire countries. With Iceland under their belt, Korea tops the list of next targets)"고 말해, 한국이 환투기세력의 공격권에 들어섰음을 강력 경고했다. 그는 외국투자가들을 불안케 하는 한국경제의 문제점으로 집단도산 위기에 직면한 건설사들을 열거한 뒤, 무엇보다 정부의 신뢰 상실을 핵심 문제점으로 지적했다. 그는 한화투자증권의 김성강씨 말을 빌어 "한국정부는 시장의 요구에 부응하는 데 언제나 늦어왔다. 대책이 나오더라도 시장이 이미 예측했던 것들이다"라며 정부의 늑장대처를 힐난했다. 그는 결론적으로 이명박 대통령을 향해 "그는 대단하게 행동해 투자자들에게 지금이 위기가 아님을 확신케 만들어야 한다"며 신뢰 회복의 중요성을 강조했다. 다음은 페섹의 글 전문. Ghost of Bear Stearns Haunts South Korea Economy: William Pesek Commentary by William Pesek Oct. 24 (Bloomberg) -- South Korea has become the Bear Stearns economy. Just as excessive gloom on the part of pundits accelerated the demise of the 85-year-old investment bank, a bubble in negativity is causing a run on Korea. Bets that Asia's fourth- biggest economy is headed for a 1997-like crash risk becoming a self-fulfilling prophesy. This isn't a blame-the-media column. Bear Stearns Cos. got in over its head with risky trades that threatened the firm with bankruptcy. There's still something to be said about how unsubstantiated rumors and speculation zooming around cyberspace hastened its collapse. Korea isn't there yet, and there's ample reason to think it will avoid such a fate. Markets aren't so sure and Korea is under attack -- even though officials in Seoul make a valid case for the economy's health. ``We are a lot better equipped than 10 years ago,'' Jun Kwang Woo, chairman of Korea's Financial Services Commission, told Bloomberg News on Oct. 21. On top of steps already taken -- pledging $130 billion to support banks, tossing a $6 billion lifeline to the construction industry and fiscal and monetary stimulus -- Korea is in the ``most comfortable position'' to implement additional economy- boosting efforts, Jun said. `Swift and Broad' Korea's policy steps so far have won the support of the three main credit-rating companies. Standard & Poor's, which last week sparked the biggest one-day drop in the won since 1997 by placing Korea's five biggest banks on review for a downgrade, called the bank plan ``swift and broad.'' It's worth accentuating the positive. Korean companies have become more competitive since the late 1990s and banks' capital and asset quality are reasonable. The nation's debt ratio is near the lowest among major economies. Korea has $240 billion of currency reserves. ``Fears of a balance of payments or banking crisis are overdone,'' Paul Gruenwald, Singapore-based economist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd., said in an Oct. 22 research report. It's true that Korea, like many other emerging-market economies, faces sizeable challenges as credit markets seize up. There also are vulnerabilities specific to Korea. ``These are bounded and not of a magnitude that warrant the doom-and-gloom commentary and pricing we are currently witnessing,'' Gruenwald said. `IMF Crisis' What's striking is how investors seem to have singled out Korea as the riskiest investment-grade economy in Asia. And in this interconnected, real-time world of ours, the more people chatter about another ``IMF crisis'' in Korea, the more one becomes possible. Korea has made substantial progress since accepting a humiliating $57 billion bailout from the International Monetary Fund in 1997. President Lee Myung Bak has been reassuring investors that Korea can ride out the worsening global storm. A key problem is that banks are again making the pre-1997 mistake of borrowing in short maturities and in foreign currencies. As that realization filtered through markets, Korea suffered a massive capital flight out of equities. Korea is a cautionary tale for Asia. If things get worse, capital will increasingly leave emerging markets in search of destinations deemed less risky. Market turmoil is dominating boardrooms. A case in point was Samsung Electronics Co.'s decision this week to scrap a $5.85 billion offer to buy SanDisk Corp., saying losses at the U.S. company may worsen as a glut forces chipmakers to cut prices. Bear Stearns Dynamic This is where the Bear Stearns dynamic comes into play. First, hedge funds and speculators went after top-rated Wall Street firms. Now, they are gunning for entire countries. With Iceland under their belt, Korea tops the list of next targets. Export-driven Korea has its vulnerabilities. As Daniel Soh, an economist at Forecast Pte in Singapore, put it: ``South Korea's economy is definitely heading down. The construction industry is a major worry. The economy will slow into a recession. It's happening all over the world.'' It's the last part of Soh's comment that's most important. The credit crisis is a global phenomenon and yet Korea is the Asian economy being punished the most. Some of this is attributable to negative news coverage. Isn't it possible that the more observers buzz hyperbolically about another Great Depression, the more likely consumers will internalize that risk and help bring it about? This is less about blaming the media than wondering why so many are negative about Korea for seemingly irrational reasons. Taking Lumps It stands to reason that investors would harbor concerns about Asia's emerging markets. After all, Thailand and Indonesia, both of which joined Korea in 1997 in accepting IMF bailouts, are taking their lumps. Also, investors such as Kim Sung Kwang of Hanwha Investment Trust Management Co. in Seoul have a point when they argue the ``government has been late in responding to market calls for such measures, which once announced, don't go beyond what the market has already expected.'' There is more to be done and this is crunch time for Lee, a former chief executive officer of several Hyundai Group affiliates. He needs to act boldly and convince investors that a crisis isn't imminent. Those bracing for the worst may want to give Korea the benefit of the doubt.

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